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忠言逆耳

本帖最後由 古惑強 於 2010-10-29 12:04 編輯
一個律師一個醫生 置業蝕200萬的故事
(經濟日報)2010年10月28日 星期四 06:00
【經濟日報專訊】樓價愈高,市民愈想買樓,正當人人怨政府不出手幫市民上車置業,政府不斷提醒市民「97年的教訓」,但此刻,誰聽得入耳?

所謂前車可鑑,且看過來人的教訓,是否能令大家三思。一個是律師,一個是醫生,當年同樣賠上200萬元,今日他們都選擇租樓,儲足「彈藥」,樓價回落時才有本錢入市。

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勿太年輕買樓 租屋不失禮

每個年代的年輕人都夢想成家立室,高薪厚職的醫生,早在25歲已圓置業夢,未夠30歲便樓換樓買入無敵海景千呎單位,結果勁蝕200萬元,換來投資智慧,頓悟買樓不可太年輕。如今醫生成熟了,決定不做房奴,並以過來人身份寄語年輕專業人士別物質化,當買樓如買名牌,直言租屋不失禮。

「上一代的人會說買樓保值,有錢就應該買樓,那就不會把錢白白花了。」腸胃肝臟科專科醫生胡志遠,聽了老人言,95年買下人生第一層樓,那是價值240萬元的沙田    第一城    562呎單位。立室之餘,他同年還成了家,當時他只有25歲。

跨過了97年金融風暴,胡志遠的物業在98年維持240萬元,他在無賺無蝕的情況下賣樓,又以630萬元購入馬鞍山雅濤居千呎單位。「那裏最高去過900萬元,我買入時已經跌了逾20%,當時我沒想到個泡沫未爆完。」

630萬購千呎戶 430萬蝕讓

「我個單位在高層,有個很美的海景,那時常常拍日出與日落的照片。」胡志遠憶起當年的馬鞍山,新樓相繼落成,四處都是新設施,加上空氣清新,吸引了不少年輕專業人士買樓聚居,當然亦令不少人「損手爛腳」。

經過9個寒暑,歷盡金融風暴的餘波和沙氏的洗禮,胡志遠人生第二層樓的價值大跌32%,在07年7月只值430萬元,比當初蝕去200萬元,但他都要忍痛蝕讓,因為要遷居九龍方便孩子上幼稚園。今次賣樓後,他選擇租屋。

人要夠成熟 才抵得住誘惑

如今年輕醫生歎無力買樓,大學生說女友「無樓不嫁」,胡志遠以過來人身份說:「買樓時確不可太年輕,40歲後才應買樓,否則不夠成熟,沒有理財智慧,看不通宏觀經濟,而且容易會被經紀說服你,或用個豪華會所蒙蔽你,要個人夠成熟才抵得住這些誘惑。」

若一切可以重來,賠上200萬買置業教訓的胡志遠坦言,未必會賣掉第一城,或賣樓後改為租屋,總之人生不一定要做房奴。

「不少廿多歲的young professionals,如做i Bank、律師,都有點materialistic,覺得買到層一手海景樓就好似人家穿了LV一樣。做人應該腳踏實地,其實租屋都不會失禮。」

樓盤經紀多過客 才考慮買樓

經驗累積了智慧,胡志遠現選擇投資股票及基金,所得利息已足夠交每月4萬元的房租,未來尚待經濟周期回落,或退休前有需要,才再考慮買樓。

看通了經濟周期,又累積了投資智慧,買樓除了看海景、會所,還應看甚麼?胡志遠教路:「去到樓盤,如果經紀多過客,那才適合考慮買樓。」

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當年不蝕讓 恐律師牌不保

這陣子樓市狂熱,樓價愈升愈有,對於97年摸頂入市的律師錢志庸而言,這種狂熱似曾相識,97年也是人人見升不見跌,結果他換來一屁股的債。

買樓留下一代 卻苦了自己

這刻港人又為樓狂,他覺得香港人是吃了「毒藥」,每隔一段時間就毒發。如今他無樓一身輕,連他24歲的律師兒子也相信,不買樓,不當「房奴」,才是對自己好的方法。

錢志庸是律師,但連他也形容:「香港的樓……是不能有這麼多錢買的東西!」

錢的兒子今年才24歲,已是執業律師,但他也沒想過買樓。錢說兒子的理論是:「買樓是留給下一代,但苦了自己;不買都可以留少少(錢)給子女,自己可以享受真正人生。」

錢志庸年輕時在加拿大    留學    ,畢業後回流返港工作,讀工程出身任電腦顧問,91年以185萬元在北角買入第一層樓,是靠家人資助。

97年樓市狂熱時,他的自住單位已升價一倍達380萬元,有人問價他不賣,反而再撲入市,以490萬元購入北角海峰園另一個700多平方呎的單位,付了三成首期,當時年薪100萬元的他,可以月供8萬元。

4個月後,錢的單位升到580萬元,人家求賣,他仍不賣,但原來已是暴風雨前夕。

97年插水跌 還發夢會回升

97年7月之後,亞洲金融風暴令香港經濟有多差已不用多說,錢志庸的海峰園單位插水式跌至300多萬元,「我那時還日日在發夢,想一覺醒來樓價回升。」

結果等了2年,沒有工作,連夜校也教,每周8堂,再「靠老本」死供每月8萬元,最後連原本自住物業也賣掉,但也無補於事,惟有面對現實,賣樓離場,近500萬買入的海峰園,300萬賣出,蝕掉200萬,離場時還要找胞弟借數十萬元才度過難關,那也是不少負資產的經歷。

海峰園今日已升破97年高位,市值600萬至700萬元。錢志庸卻說,當年若非痛定思痛賣樓離場,可能已破產,連律師牌也保不住。

樓價跌至合理水平 才入市

錢志庸如今租樓住,他沒因此不敢再買樓,但要等合理價錢,「現在是息低才人人買樓,只要美國    加息;中小企借不到錢要裁員、結業,連鎖反應又出現,樓價不可能只升不跌的……」他相信現在是儲錢的時候,當樓價回落到合理水平,才是入市時,他也會考慮買樓。

錢說,當年樓價大跌,他從沒怨前特首董建華    ;但今日樓價再大跌,民不聊生,他會怨曾蔭權    ,因為已是前車可鑑,政府為何沒有出招控制樓價呢?

"無止境的等,不禁心動搖"


- 發送自我的 iPhone
AbarthJoe 發表於 2012-9-18 00:57



    你要撐著呀, 之前唔買, 宜家火紅先買會好大風險! 2013年前景一D都唔好, 忍住呀!

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From Bloomberg


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/20 ... cash-mortgages.html

"Competing Buyers
Hong Kong homebuyers like Liu are losing out as investors from the rest of China push up prices. Buyers from the mainland accounted for about 54 percent of new home sales by value in Hong Kong in the third quarter of last year, according to Midland Holdings. The share fell to 37 percent in the first quarter, the Hong Kong-based broker said.
“I told myself to wait until the market pulls back, but it never seems to,” said Liu, who’s now prepared to pay as much as HK$4 million for a two-room apartment. “It’s been very frustrating.”
Qiushi Zhang, a 25-year-old graduate from the University of Toronto, convinced his parents in the Chinese city of Wuhan to purchase a two-bedroom condominium at Cityplace, a development along Toronto’s waterfront.
“People have money in mainland China, but they don’t have good investment options,” Zhang said by phone.
Canada is regarded by investors from China, Singapore and India as a relatively stable and affordable place to seek returns on real estate, said Debbie Cosic, a founder and partner of In2ition Marketing Insights. The Mississauga, Ontario-based brokerage markets new homes for developers."

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本帖最後由 greenbug 於 2012-9-18 11:19 編輯

買唔建議, 賣都唔建議...........

唉, 有好友都喺沙士, 雷慢買都平貨, 2年前賣左富榮, 之後租左我隔壁個坐, 買定花生等買平貨, 我就叫佢買, 個時3M, 而家4.5M.........佢而家佢都動搖, 開始睇樓..........何必呢......

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唉!  我唔識講, 但唔建議去買!

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忠言逆耳

"無止境的等,不禁心動搖"


- 發送自我的 iPhone 大板凳應用

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現在買樓有咩野策略?

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Well, the guy was too desperate, and a bit naive.

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回復  古惑強


    I don't think he got the numbers right.   At 35, with one new born and family in ...
letsrock 發表於 2010-11-23 16:41


Just did a bit more maths on this case.

A) The guy is 35 yrs old, I think the bank would only consider a max 20 yrs mortgage for him, as 25 yrs mortgage will imply he can only pay off the loan when he gets to 60!
B) With house hold income at HK$25K per month, the mortgage bank will at best allow 40~45% of the month income as mortgage repayment, as the guy will only have 55~60% of monthly income left ($13,750~15,000) for all other household expenditure (supporting 2 adults, 1 elderly plus 1 child) will be really really tight.
C) If we assume the HIBOR interest rate hike will max out at 5% p.a., the mortgage rate would be 5% + 0.8% =5.8%.  Do remember that during 2007~2008 pre crisis time, Hibor was routinely hoovering around 4~5%, and that was not even a high interest rate era!

Borrowed Amount = PV (interest, number, installments)
=HK$1.6M (assuming 45% income is used for repayment)
=HK$1.4M (assuming 40% income is used for repayment)

Assuming the Mortgage Corp is willing to take up the extra 20% to bridge the grap and take the total financing ratio up to 90%, he can only afford property with a selling price of HK$1.55~1.77M.  He still need to have additional funds for the stamp duty, agent commission, lawyer fees & move in expenses etc, and the above calculations didn't factor in the mortgage corp insurance cost neither.  

From the newspaper info, he bought a flat with a price tag of HK$1.965M, he was already $200K over budget before all these shit had happened.  

Sad case really, only if he did talk to the bank / mortgage consultant before hand, they probably would have advised him not to buy anything property above HK$1.7M even before the government had announced the latest anti-speculation measure.

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Thanks for the compliments.

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OMG!  Letsrock, you have some serious hidden talent!  May be you should consider a part time job in the music industry!

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回復 38# peterkoon

You made it sound like a rap song..... maybe we can all rap along....

Oh com'on.We don't only love bricks,
but we also love babes and gorgeous chicks,
stepping on the throttle burning rubber like how they were made,
with the hot  gadgets and that is how we track our dates
flashes and cameras to make sure we got the names right with the babes,
while we pump the hifi and smoking cigars and talk about the crazy chicks,
we love watches and we love $$$$$ but we only follow the mind of our dicks......

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Okay! Okay! 博愛一族(同性,太老及太老嫩例外)

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回復 40# 古惑強


    But I don't love man

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博愛一族!

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回復  letsrock


    No, no, we love bricks, we love chicks, we love cars, we love gedgets, we love ...
peterkoon 發表於 2010-11-23 22:11


I agree!!! haha...

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回復 34# letsrock


    No, no, we love bricks, we love chicks, we love cars, we love gedgets, we love cameras, we love hifi, we love watches and we love $$$$$

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戒早餐可以買樓,咁我戒晚餐咪可以買豪宅?

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戒早餐可以買樓,咁我戒晚餐咪可以買豪宅?

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