好實際的樓價評語

Simon

香港科技大學    經濟系教授雷鼎鳴表示，香港最近的樓價的確有點貴，尤其是港島區的樓價。

雷鼎鳴在電台節目中表示，按照一間地產經紀公司提供的數據，若97年10月樓價高峰期樓價的指數是100，上周則是73.37，亦即是說若要回復97年10月的水平，樓價要再升36.3%才成。

他指出，該公司另又提供一個叫供樓負擔指數的統計，以一個香港中位數收入的家庭作標準，買入一間400尺的屋，首期四成，供20年，每月要用收入的33.4%供樓，這個指數以國際標準來說不算太低，但相對於97年10月時要用80.1%收入去供樓，已不算最高。

他指出，港島的樓價指數已經是97年10月的83.04，水位與97年初相同。97年止是樓市的泡沬期，今天不應該用泡沬樓價作比較準則。今天的樓價已大約與96年十一月份一樣，當時的樓價已是很高了，所以也可以說今天樓價已是頗貴。

他表示，如市民想買樓，為安全計，應假設將來按揭息率可能比現在上升多二、三厘，甚至更多，每月的供款肯定要比現在多。較安全的做法是若果現在的供款額為一萬，應預計未來的供款額為一萬四千，總之將銀行供款加上四成作調整，就應相當大程度上抵消可能於不久的將來出現的加息效果。

古惑強

他表示，如市民想買樓，為安全計，應假設將來按揭息率可能比現在上升多二、三厘，甚至更多，每月的供款肯定要比現在多。較安全的做法是若果現在的供款額為一萬，應預計未來的供款額為一萬四千，總之將銀行供款加上四成作調整，就應相當大程度上抵消可能於不久的將來出現的加息效果。

Agree 100%!

Eric

Yes, now the mortage interest rate is really low.
Remeber 11years ago, I had mortage with the
bank for 6.4M and the rate is more than 11% (P+ 2.75%)
Out of the 64,000 monthly payment, only about few thousands
for the principle and all are interest. Those days are terible.

古惑強

Sorry, never quite get around to answer this post.

Assuming your household income is HK$30K, if you select the 90% mortgage arrangement (20% mortgage corp. guarantee + 70% bank financing), and 45% of your income will used for servicing the debt, mortgage rate at 5%, 20 years repayment plan.  You can borrow up to HK$3.1MM, base on 90% financing, you can afford real estate up to HK$3.45MM, obviously besides the 10% down payment, you need to factor in the stamp duty (1%), commission (2.25%), decoration (say 3%) etc., you will need to have at least HK$560K as initial investment for such estate.

However, if this is your 1st purchase, I suggest you should consider estate with a price tag below HK$2.0MM to begin with, in that case you would have more disposable income after settling the monthly mortgage payment.

Car is for just for leisure, real estate is ........ well part of life.